Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with lymph node-positive invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast: based on SEER database and external validation cohort
机构:[1]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 4, Dept Pathol, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China医技科室病理科河北医科大学第四医院[2]Cangzhou Cent Hosp, Dept Thyroid & Breast Surg 2, Cangzhou, Peoples R China[3]Hebei Med Univ, Coll Basic Med, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China
Background Invasive micropapillary carcinoma (IMPC) of the breast is a rare subtype of breast cancer with high incidence of aggressive clinical behavior, lymph node metastasis (LNM) and poor prognosis. In the present study, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic factors of IMPC with LNM, and constructed a prognostic nomogram.Methods We retrospectively analyzed data for 487 breast IMPC patients with LNM in the SEER database from January 2010 to December 2015, and randomly divided these patients into a training cohort (70%) and an internal validation cohort (30%) for the construction and internal validation of the nomogram, respectively. In addition, 248 patients diagnosed with IMPC and LNM at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2010 to December 2019 were collected as an external validation cohort. Lasso regression, along with Cox regression, was used to screen risk factors. Further more, the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed based on the consistency index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results In summary, we identified six variables including molecular subtype of breast cancer, first malignant primary indicator, tumor grade, AJCC stage, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors in predicting the prognosis of IMPC patients with LNM (P < 0.05). Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed for predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of patients. The nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.789 (95%CI: 0.759-0.819) in the training cohort, 0.775 (95%CI: 0.731-0.819) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.788 (95%CI: 0.756-0.820) in the external validation cohort. According to the calculated patient risk score, the patients were divided into a high-risk group and a low-risk group, which showed a significant difference in the survival prognosis of the two groups (P<0.0001). The time-dependent ROC curves, calibration curves and DCA curves proved the superiority of the nomogram.Conclusions We have successfully constructed a nomogram that could predict 3- and 5-year OS of IMPC patients with LNM and may assist clinicians in decision-making and personalized treatment planning.
基金:
The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
第一作者机构:[1]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 4, Dept Pathol, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 4, Dept Pathol, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Li Yifei,Liu Jinzhao,Xu Zihang,et al.Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with lymph node-positive invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast: based on SEER database and external validation cohort[J].FRONTIERS IN ONCOLOGY.2023,13:doi:10.3389/fonc.2023.1231302.
APA:
Li, Yifei,Liu, Jinzhao,Xu, Zihang,Shang, Jiuyan,Wu, Si...&Liu, Yueping.(2023).Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with lymph node-positive invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast: based on SEER database and external validation cohort.FRONTIERS IN ONCOLOGY,13,
MLA:
Li, Yifei,et al."Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with lymph node-positive invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast: based on SEER database and external validation cohort".FRONTIERS IN ONCOLOGY 13.(2023)