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Distinguishing very high-risk patients among high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumor cases: development and validation of a nomogram based on a multicenter population-based retrospective cohort study

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机构: [1]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Union Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Wuhan 430022, Peoples R China [2]Zhengzhou Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China [3]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [4]Peking Univ, Peoples Hosp, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Beijing, Peoples R China [5]Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Chongqing, Peoples R China [6]Hebei Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 4, Dept Gen Surg 3, Shijiazhuang, Peoples R China [7]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Canc Ctr, Dept Gastr & Pancreat Surg, State Key Lab Oncol South China, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [8]Yangtze Univ, Jingzhou Hosp, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Jingzhou, Peoples R China [9]Hubei Univ Med, Taihe Hosp, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Shiyan, Peoples R China [10]First Peoples Hosp Jingmen, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Jingmen, Peoples R China [11]China Three Gorges Univ, Yichang Cent Peoples Hosp, Inst Digest Dis, Dept Gastiointestinal Surg, Yichang, Peoples R China [12]Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Chengdu, Peoples R China [13]Fudan Univ, Zhongshan Hosp, Dept Gen Surg, Shanghai 200032, Peoples R China
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关键词: Adjuvant therapy gastrointestinal stromal tumors gene mutations nomogram very high-risk

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BackgroundHigh-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are highly heterogeneous. This study aimed to developa nomogram for predicting recurrence in patients with high-risk GISTand to provide guidance for adjuvant therapy.MethodsData were retrospectively collected from 971 patients with high-risk GIST who underwent genetic testingat 13 centers in China. A nomogram was constructed in the training cohort and validated in the validation cohort.RseultsThe training and validation cohorts included 696 and 275 patients, respectively. The nomogram incorporated blood plateletlevels, total protein, tumor location, tumor size, mitotic count, tumor rupture, Ki-67 index, and gene mutations. The C-index and AUC were 0.758 and 0.781 in the training cohort and 0.841 and 0.755, respectively, in the validation cohort. Calibration and DCA curves confirmed favorable discrimination, calibration accuracy, and clinical benefits. Using the nomogram, patients were categorized into a general high-risk groupand a very high-risk group. Among the general high-risk group, no significant difference in RFS was observed between patients who received adjuvant imatinib for 2.5 years or longer. Conversely, in the very high-risk group, patients receiving adjuvant imatinib for five or more years had markedly improved RFS.ConclusionsBased on the largest nomogram-related multicenter study in high-risk GIST, the nomogram accurately predicted RFS in patients with high-risk GIST and provided guidance on adjuvant therapy for the first time. For general high-risk patients, 3 years of adjuvant imatinib is adequate, whereas very high-risk patients benefit significantly from more than 5 years of adjuvant imatinib.

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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:内科
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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:内科
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Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
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Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

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第一作者机构: [1]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Union Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Wuhan 430022, Peoples R China
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