机构：[1]Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, China[2]3M R&D Center,Shanghai, China[3]The Second People’s Hospital of Wuhu, Wuhu, China[4]Zhujiang Hospital of Southern MedicalUniversity, Guangzhou, China南方医科大学珠江医院[5]The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China[6]Quanzhou Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Quanzhou, China[7]Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan,China[8]Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Lanzhou, China[9]Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, The Affiliated Hospitalof Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, China[10]The Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University,Inner Mongolia, China[11]The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, China[12]The First AffiliatedHospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China[13]General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China[14]Fujian Provincial Hospital, Fuzhou, China[15]The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China河北医科大学第四医院[16]Haikou People’s Hospital, Haikou, China[17]The Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China[18]AnhuiProvincial Hospital, Hefei, China[19]The First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China[20]Ningbo No.2 Hospital, Ningbo, China[21]Shanghai Chest Hospital Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China[22]The SecondHospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China[23]Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, Harbin, China[24]TheFirst Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China[25]The First Central HospitalTianjin, Tianjin, China[26]Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China[27]Southern Medical University NanfangHospital, Guangzhou, China[28]The People’s Hospital of Sanya, Sanya, China[29]Sino-Japanese Friendship Hospital ofJilin University, Changchun, China吉林大学中日联谊医院
Inadvertent intraoperative hypothermia (core temperature <36 degrees C) is a frequent but preventable complication of general anesthesia. Accurate risk assessment of individual patients may help physicians identify patients at risk for hypothermia and apply preventive approaches, which include active intraoperative warming. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk-prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia. Two independent observational studies in China, the Beijing Regional Survey and the China National Survey, were conducted in 2013 and 2014, respectively, to determine the incidence of hypothermia and its underlying risk factors. In this study, using data from these two studies, we first derived a risk calculation equation, estimating the predictive risk of hypothermia using National Survey data (3132 patients), then validated the equation using the Beijing Regional Survey data (830 patients). Measures of accuracy, discrimination and calibration were calculated in the validation data set. Through validation, this model, named Predictors Score, had sound overall accuracy (Brier Score = 0.211), good discrimination (C-Statistic = 0.759) and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.5611). We conclude that the Predictors Score is a valid predictor of the risk of operative hypothermia and can be used in deciding whether intraoperative warming is a cost-effective measure in preventing the hypothermia.
基金：
China National Health and Planned Parenthood Committee Health Quality
Improvement Award (ID# 201402017, principal investigator Yuguang Huang, MD); the China National Nature
Science Foundation (Grant# 31070930, principal investigator Yuguang Huang, MD), and an unrestricted research
grant (MDI0091, principal investigator Yuguang Huang, MD) from 3 M China R&D Center. Drs. Lujing Zhan
and Min Yao are current or former employees of 3 M.
第一作者机构：[1]Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Beijing, China
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Jie Yi,Lujing Zhan,Yongjing Lei,et al.Establishment and Validation of a Prediction Equation to Estimate Risk of Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia[J].SCIENTIFIC REPORTS.2017,7:doi:10.1038/s41598-017-12997-x.
APA：
Jie Yi,Lujing Zhan,Yongjing Lei,Shiyuan Xu,Yongyu Si...&Yuguang Huang.(2017).Establishment and Validation of a Prediction Equation to Estimate Risk of Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,
MLA：
Jie Yi,et al."Establishment and Validation of a Prediction Equation to Estimate Risk of Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7.(2017)
