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GWTG Risk Model for All Stroke Types Predicts In-Hospital and 3-Month Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Stroke

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机构: [1]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Neurol, 215 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China [2]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Ctr Stroke, Beijing, Peoples R China [5]Beijing Key Lab Translat Med Cerebrovasc Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China [6]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Endocrinol, Hosp 4, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China
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关键词: Stroke prognosis mortality outcomes risk factors

摘要:
Background: We aimed to externally validate the Get With the Guidelines (GWTG) risk model for all stroke types to predict in-hospital stroke mortality in Chinese patients and moreover to explore its prognostic value in predicting 3-month mortality after stroke. Methods: The prognostic model was applied to patients with acute stroke from China National Stroke Registry II (CNSR II) to predict in-hospital and 3-month mortality. Model discrimination was estimated by calculating c-statistic and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Calibration was assessed by Pearson correlation coefficient and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Date from 21,684 stroke patients with complete data for in-hospital mortality prediction and 20,348 stroke patients with complete data for 3-month mortality prediction in the CNSR II were abstracted. The in-hospital and 3-month mortality were 1.4% and 5.6%, respectively. The c-statistics in the CNSR II were .86 (95% CI, .84-.88) and .83 (95% CI, .81-.84) for in-hospital and 3-month mortality, respectively. Calibration plot presented high correlation between the observed and predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation coefficient, .996 for in-hospital and .998 for 3-month mortality; both P < .001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the prediction of in-hospital and 3-month mortality were 0.21 and less than .001, respectively. The model performed nearly as well in each stroke type as in the overall model including all types. Conclusions: The GWTG risk model for all stroke types is a valid clinical tool to predict in-hospital and 3-month mortality in Chinese patients with acute stroke of any type.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 神经科学 4 区 外周血管病
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 神经科学 4 区 外周血管病
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q4 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE Q4 NEUROSCIENCES
最新[2023]版:
Q3 NEUROSCIENCES Q3 PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Neurol, 215 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Hebei Med Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Neurol, 215 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China [2]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]China Natl Clin Res Ctr Neurol Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]Beijing Inst Brain Disorders, Ctr Stroke, Beijing, Peoples R China [*1]Department of Neurology, The Second Hospital, Hebei Medical University, No. 215 Heping West Rd, Shi Jiazhuang, Hebei Province, China [*2]Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
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