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A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer

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机构: [1]Hebei Gen Hosp, Dept Emergency, 348 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang 050051, Hebei, Peoples R China [2]Huanghua Gen Hosp, Dept Anorectal Surg, 262 Xinhua Rd, Huanghua 061100, Hebei, Peoples R China [3]Hebei Gen Hosp, Dept Oncol, Shijiazhuang 050051, Hebei, Peoples R China [4]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Surg 2, Hosp 4, 12 Jiankang Rd, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, Peoples R China [5]First Hosp Shijiazhuang, Dept Anorectal Surg, 36 Fanxi Rd, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, Peoples R China [6]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Plast Surg, Hosp 4, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, Peoples R China [7]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Anesthesiol, Hosp 4, 12 Jiankang Rd, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, Peoples R China [8]Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Peoples Hosp 9, Dept Gen Surg, Sch Med, Shanghai 200011, Peoples R China [9]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Gen Surg, Affiliated Hosp 1, 89 Donggang Rd, Shijiazhuang 050000, Hebei, Peoples R China
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关键词: Colorectal cancer Obstruction Prognosis Nomogram

摘要:
Background The prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer (oCRC) is worse than that of nonobstructive colorectal cancer. However, no previous study has established an individualized prediction model for the prognosis of patients with oCRC. We aimed to screen the factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC and to use these findings to establish a nomogram model that predicts the individual prognosis of patients with oCRC. Methods This retrospective study collected data of 181 patients with oCRC from three medical hospitals between February 2012 and December 2017. Among them, 129 patients from one hospital were used as the training cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used in this training cohort to select independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC, and a nomogram model was established. The other 52 patients from two additional hospitals were used as the validation cohort to verify the model. Results Multivariate analysis showed that carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.037, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.872 [1.065-7.740]), N stage (N1 vs. N0, p = 0.028, HR = 3.187 [1.137-8.938]; N2 vs. N0, p = 0.010, HR = 4.098 [1.393-12.051]), and surgical procedures (p = 0.002, HR = 0.299 [0.139-0.643]) were independent prognostic factors of overall survival in patients with oCRC. These factors were used to construct the nomogram model, which showed good concordance and accuracy. Conclusion Carcinoembryonic antigen, N stage, and surgical method are independent prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with oCRC, and the nomogram model can visually display these results.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 外科 4 区 肿瘤学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学 3 区 外科
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q2 SURGERY Q3 ONCOLOGY
最新[2024]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q3 ONCOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Hebei Gen Hosp, Dept Emergency, 348 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang 050051, Hebei, Peoples R China
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