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Construction and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival of colorectal cancer patients

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机构: [1]Hebei Med Univ, Gen Surg 2, Hosp 4, 12 JianKang Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China [2]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Gastrointestinal Surg, Hosp 3, 139 Ziqiang Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China [3]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Gen Surg, Hosp 2, 215 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China
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关键词: Colorectal cancer Overall survival Nomogram

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BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is a frequent cancer worldwide with varied survival outcomes.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict the overall survival (OS) of CRC patients after surgery.DesignThis is a retrospective study.SettingThis study was conducted from 2015 to 2016 in a single tertiary center for CRC.PatientsCRC patients who underwent surgery between 2015 and 2016 were enrolled and randomly assigned into the training (n = 480) and validation (n = 206) groups. The risk score of each subject was calculated based on the nomogram. All participants were categorized into two subgroups according to the median value of the score.Main outcome measuresThe clinical characteristics of all patients were collected, significant prognostic variables were determined by univariate analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied for variable selection. The tuning parameter (& lambda;) for LASSO regression was determined by cross-validation. Independent prognostic variables determined by multivariable analysis were used to establish the nomogram. The predictive capacity of the model was assessed by risk group stratification.ResultsInfiltration depth, macroscopic classification, BRAF, carbohydrate antigen 19 - 9 (CA-199) levels, N stage, M stage, TNM stage, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, number of positive lymph nodes, vascular tumor thrombus, and lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram established based on these factors exhibited good discriminatory capacity. The concordance indices for the training and validation groups were 0.796 and 0.786, respectively. The calibration curve suggested favorable agreement between predictions and observations. Moreover, the OS of different risk subgroups was significantly different.LimitationsThe limitations of this work included small sample size and single-center design. Also, some prognostic factors could not be included due to the retrospective design.ConclusionsA prognostic nomogram for predicting the OS of CRC patients after surgery was developed, which might be helpful for evaluating the prognosis of CRC patients.

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出版当年[2023]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 外科
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 外科
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Q2 SURGERY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 SURGERY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2023版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Hebei Med Univ, Gen Surg 2, Hosp 4, 12 JianKang Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Hebei Med Univ, Gen Surg 2, Hosp 4, 12 JianKang Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China [3]Hebei Med Univ, Dept Gen Surg, Hosp 2, 215 Heping West Rd, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China
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